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Photograph: Gwarek

Croatia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  in the third quarter of 2015 is likely to rise by over 2%, on the back of stronger consumption, exports and investments, according to forecasts made by macroeconomic analysts, and the Q3 GDP growth rate will be thus the highest since Q2 2008, the last pre-recession year.

The Croatian statistical office (DZS) is expected to publish next week its preliminary data on the GDP growth in Q3 2015, and the eight analysts covered by a survey conducted by Hina, have projected the rise of 2.2% compared to the corresponding quarter in 2014. The lowest projection is +1.6% and the highest is +3%.

If these projections prove to be correct, Croatia will have a positive growth for four straight quarters, with the latest quarter seeing the fastest growth, after the Q2 2015 saw a growth of +1.2% year-on-year.

Also, the projected growth rate of 2.2% will be the highest one since the second quarter in 2008 when the rate was +2.9% y-o-y.

The analysts hold that the rise in personal consumption, the biggest component of GDP, has triggered off a marked growth.

One of the eight analysts also pointed out excellent results in the tourist season, low fuel prices and reduction in income taxes as contributors to the positive trend in GDP.

 In addition, an increase in industrial production for eight months in a row is also seen as a positive contribution to Croatia's GDP.

The European Commission's Autumn Forecast 2015 has revised upward Croatia's GDP growth in 2015 to 1.1% from the Commission's initial forecast of 0.3%, while the International Monetary Fund's forecast for Croatia's economy in 2015 has been revised from the initial 0.5% to 0.8%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects the Croatian economy to rise by 0.9% this year.

Judging from those projections, 2015 is to be the first year of a positive growth in Croatia's economy after six recession-hit years.

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